Racial/ethnic population trends challenge United Methodists
8/21/1998
DAYTON, Ohio (UMNS) - Racial and ethnic population in the United States will reach 36 percent of the total by the year 2020, up from 24.3 percent in 1990, according to a recent report by the United Methodist General Council on Ministries (GCOM).
During this 30-year period, the racial and ethnic population is expected to increase by 55 million, while the European American population increase is projected for 18 million, according to GCOM's research office. The growth of racial/ethnic population will be 10 times greater than the European American population, so for every four additional individuals in the United States, three will be people of color. The Asian Pacific American, Hispanic American and Native American populations will each more than double.
The report is based on projections compiled by Woods and Poole Economics Inc., a demographic research firm in Washington. The organization uses U.S. census data and sophisticated trend analysis to project population shifts.
The United Methodist Church has about 8 million white members and a half-million racial/ethnic members in the United States. To make the 2020 projections by Woods and Poole more relevant to United Methodists, the GCOM staff has compiled data for each of the church's 66 annual (regional) conferences and five jurisdictions in the United States.
GCOM President Bishop J. Woodrow Hearn of Houston said the projections send a message to the United Methodist Church as it moves into a new century.
"We must learn new ways of relating to persons who represent a variety of cultures, languages and traditions," he said. "To have a wider selection of all God's people in the church can enrich us as we share with each other."
The denomination is fortunate because it is already a global church with congregations in the United States, Africa, Asia and Europe, Hearn said.
"Those of us in the United States can learn from our sisters and brothers in other parts of the world," he said. "They have already discovered ways to effectively reach people from diverse backgrounds."
The 12-state Western Jurisdiction will have the largest increase in population during the 30-year period (24.4 million), according to the projections released by GCOM. Of this number, 18.4 million -- or three out of four new people - will be from racial-ethnic backgrounds.
The nine-state Southeastern Jurisdiction will have the most rapid population growth for all groups, with the racial/ethnic population making up half of the total (10.9 million of 21.8 million). In the eight-state South Central Jurisdiction, the racial/ethnic population will double (10.7 million to 21.5 million), and its portion of the total population will increase 14 percentage points ( 28.6 percent in 1990 to 42.3 percent in 2020).
The European American population in the 12-state Northeastern Jurisdiction will decline 7.8 percent during the 30-year period, representing 3.5 million fewer people. For every five new ethnic/racial persons in the region, there will be two fewer European Americans. The racial/ethnic proportion will increase by 12 percentage points (22.1 percent in 1990 to 34.5 percent in 2020).
In the church's nine-state North Central Jurisdiction, the racial/ethnic growth will be 15 times that of European Americans (81.5 percent vs. 5.4 percent). In actual numbers, the racial/ethnic population growth will be 2 ½ times that of European Americans (6 million to 4.7 million).
Asian Pacific American and Native American populations will double in the North Central Jurisdiction, while in the South Central area, Hispanic American population will increase to 60 percent of the racial/ethnic population growth.
In the Southeastern Jurisdiction, the African American population will grow by 5 million, and the Native American population will double from 150,000 to 389,000. The most dramatic increase in the Southeast will be among Hispanic Americans, whose total will more than triple from 2 million to 6.9 million.
Projections for each of the United Methodist annual (regional) conferences is available by contacting the GCOM Office of Research: (937) 227-9400; e-mail: www.gcom-umc.org
Statistics for each jurisdiction follow:
NORTH CENTRAL JURISDICTION
Ethnic/Racial Grouping 1990 Population (U.S. Census) 2020 Population Projection PopulationGrowth1990-2020 PercentageGrowth1990-2020
European American 43,171,60085.4 % 45,506,15077.2 % 2,334,550 5 %
African American 4,928,5209.7 % 6,796,84011.5 % 1,868,320 38 %
Asian/Pacific American 738,8001.5 % 1,515,6702.6 % 776,870 105 %
Hispanic American 1,536,2203.0 % 4,713,6408.0 % 3,177,420 207 %
Native American 204,7500.4 % 420,0500.7 % 215,300 105 %
TOTALSNon-Europeantotals and % 50,579,8907,408,290 (14.6 %) 58,952,35013,446,200(22.8 %) 8,372,4606,037,910(81.5 %) 16.6 %(82 %)
NORTHEASTERN JURISDICTION
Ethnic/Racial Grouping 1990 Population (U.S. Census) 2020 Population Projection PopulationGrowth1990-2020 PercentageGrowth1990-2020
European American 45,743,57077.9 % 42,172,34065.5 % -3,571,230 -7.8 %
African American 7,472,43012.7 % 10,366,08016.1 % +2,893,650 + 39 %
Asian/Pacific American 1,227,8802.1 % 3,524,5805.5 % +2,296,700 187 %
Hispanic American 3,937,2206.7 % 7,296,57011.3 % +3,359,350 86 %
NativeAmerican 340,2905.8 % 976,8001.5 % +636,510 187 %
TOTALS Non-Europeantotals and % 58,721,39012,977,820 (22.1%) 64,336,37022,164,030(34.5%) +5,614,9809,186,210(163.6 %) 9.6 %70.8 %
SOUTH CENTRAL JURISDICTION
Ethnic/Racial Grouping 1990 Population (U.S. Census) 2020 Population Projection PopulationGrowth1990-2020 PercentageGrowth1990-2020
European American 26,769,71071.4 % 28,981,25057.7 % 2,211,540 8 %
African American 4,470,51011.9 % 6,445,98012.8 % 1,975,470 44 %
Asian/Pacific American 713,0501.9 % 1,667,5403.3 % 954,490 134 %
Hispanic American 5,330,82014.2 % 12,929,37025.6 % 7,598,550 143 %
NativeAmerican 197,6200.5 % 262,1400.5 % 64,520 33 %
TOTALS Non-Europeantotals and % 37,481,71010,712,000(28.6 %) 50,486,28021,505,030(42.3 %) 13,004,57010,793,030(83.0 %) 35 %(101 %)
SOUTHEASTERN JURISDICTION
Ethnic/Racial Grouping 1990 Population (U.S. Census) 2020 Population Projection PopulationGrowth1990-2020 PercentageGrowth1990-2020
European American 38,240,71074.8 % 49,064,45067.3 % 10,823,740 28 %
African American 10,114,97019.8 % 15,132,84020.7 % 5,017,870 50 %
Asian/Pacific American 542,5301.1 % 1,405,5401.9 % 863,010 59 %
Hispanic American 2,054,9304.0 % 6,914,2309.5 % 4,859,300 236 %
NativeAmerican 150,3600.3 % 389,5300.5 % 239,170 159 %
TOTALS Non-Europeantotals and % 51,103,50012,862,790(25.2 %) 72,906,59023,842,140(32.7 %) 21,803,09010,979,350(50.4 %) 43 %(85 %)
WESTERN JURISDICTION
Ethnic/Racial Grouping 1990 Population (U.S. Census) 2020 Population Projection PopulationGrowth1990-2020 PercentageGrowth1990-2020
European American 34,800,19067.5 % 40,747,06053.6 % 5,946,870 17 %
African American 2,391,7404.6 % 3,585,9704.7 % 1,194,230 50 %
Asian/Pacific American 3,730,9807.2 % 8,390,11011.0 % 4,659,130 125 %
Hispanic American 9,569,55018.6 % 20,912,06027.5 % 11,342,510 119 %
NativeAmerican 1,034,0002.0 % 2,325,2303.1 % 1,291,230 125 %
TOTALSNon-Europeantotals and % 51,526,46016,726,270(32.5 %) 75,960,43035,213,370(46.4 %) 24,433,97018,487,100(75.7 %) 47 %(110 %)
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